Climate Change Prediction: Al Gore versus Prof. Scott Armstrong

Thursday, May 14, 2009

Intrade, in association with TheClimateBet.com, are pleased to announce a new market listed in our Climate and Weather trading category: Climate Change Prediction: Al Gore versus Prof. Scott Armstrong.

In June 2007, Wharton Professor Scott Armstrong offered Al Gore a "bet" of $10,000 on who could best predict global mean temperature over the next ten years. Al Gore declined the bet, citing the reason that he does not bet money (the full story can be reviewed at theclimatebet.com).

This market assumes that Gore and Armstrong made a gentlemen's wager (with no money), with a starting date of 1^st Jan 2008. Whose prediction would be more accurate after three years? 

This contract will settle (expire) at 100 ($10.00) if Scott Armstrong is more accurate

This contract will settle (expire) at 0 ($0.00) if Al Gore is more accurate 

Expiry will be based on the data published by the UAH global temperature record. Expiry will be determined as follows:

• The average of the monthly figures in the third column (Globe) for each year provides the annual global mean temperature anomaly. In 2007, the annual global mean temperature anomaly was 0.284 (calculated by adding together each monthly anomaly figure and dividing by twelve)
• Armstrong forecasts no change in global mean temperature over the next ten years. He predicts the 2010 annual global mean temperature will be 0.284, the same as 2007.
• Gore has not made an official forecast. He did, however, imply that the global mean temperature would increase at a rapid rate - presumably at least as great as the IPCC's 1992 projection of 0.03°C-per-year. Therefore the IPCC's 1992 projection will to be taken as Gore's forecast. This forecast predicts the 2010 annual global mean temperature anomaly to be 0.374 (0.284+[3*0.03])
• The winner will be the forecast with the lowest absolute error: if the 2010 annual global mean temperature anomaly is lower than 0.329, Armstrong wins. If it is equal to or greater than 0.329 then Gore wins.

The contract will be expired once the required data is available. The contract may therefore remain open into early-2011.

Any changes to the result after the contract has expired will not be taken into account - Exchange Rule 1.4

Please contact the exchange by emailing help@intrade.com if you have any questions regarding this contract before you place a trade.