Tuesday, Jan 22, 2008
"Polymetrics
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What candidate would have the highest probability to win the presidential election if nominated?
What candidate has the program which is more likely to foster growth, reduce unemployment and crime?
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All these crucial questions for the voters in this 2008 US election cannot be answered using traditional polls.
Using prediction markets in a innovative way, the website www.politimetrics.com proposes the answers to these questions.
www.politimetrics.com presents the estimation of the the conditional probability of success of each candidate if nominated/elected.
The numbers are estimated live, directly from the prices on specific Intrade contracts.
For the traders on www.intrade.com, this innovation may have has two interests.
First it provides additional information to help traders to seize opportunities in the mispricing of some contracts.
The information provided by www.politimetrics.com can reveal that some contracts are over or under priced.
Any such situation creates positive expected gains for those correcting these prices.
Second, it also provides additional interest for the trade because of the information built from these markets.
We would appreciate if Intrade traders would look at our website and at the markets listed in the section "Impact of next president".
As a result of the trade on these markets, we will build the same kind of graphics depicted on www.politimetrics.com, to answer the following kind of questions:
- Is Hilary Clinton more likely to be effective in managing the economy than John McCain?
- Is Rudy Giuliani more likely to decrease crime than Barack Obama??
We really hope that Intrade traders will enjoy the creation of this website and this initiative.
We appreciate your feedback here in this Forum."