Intrade Exchange News

New Market: Facebook share price at close of first day's trading

Intrade — Wed, 16 May 2012 06:57:43 GMT

On February 1, 2012, Facebook filed for an initial public offering (IPO). It shares will be traded on the NASDAQ under the ticker symbol FB.

Intrade has opened a market for the price of Facebook shares at the close of the company's first day of trading on the NASDAQ. This market can be found under Financial > Company IPOs.

Market Specific Rules:

This market will settle at $10.00 if Facebook's share price closes equal to or greater than the specified price on the first day of trading.

This market will settle at $0.00 if if Facebook's share price closes lower than the specified price on the first day of trading.

This market will be settled using the closing price of Facebook shares (FB) as published by NASDAQ and/or reported by three independent and reliable media sources (for example: Yahoo Finance, Google Finance, CNBC or CNN Money).

If there is any confusion over the closing price of Facebook's shares, Intrade reserves the absolute right to determine how this market will be settled (when and at what price). Intrade also reserves the right to wait for further information before settling this market.

New Market: The Dark Knight Rises to set opening weekend box-office record

Intrade — Tue, 08 May 2012 12:25:21 GMT

Intrade has opened a market for The Dark Knight Rises to set the all-time opening weekend box-office record (currently held by The Avengers).

This market can be found under Entertainment > Box Office Returns.

Please be sure to read the market specific rules before you make any trades. Please contact us at help@intrade.com if you have any questions.

New Market: Second weekend box-office gross for The Avengers

Intrade — Tue, 08 May 2012 11:18:51 GMT

Intrade has opened a market for the box-office gross for The Avengers in it's second weekend of release. This market can be found under Entertainment > Box Office Returns.

Please ensure you read the market rules before you make any trades. Please contact us at help@intrade.com if you have any questions.

New Market: Exact Number of Electoral College Votes Won

Intrade — Wed, 18 Apr 2012 12:07:57 GMT

Intrade has opened markets for the exact number of Electoral Collge votes that will be won by the Democratic and Republican nominees, plus any Third Party or Idependent candidates. These markets can be found under Politics > 2012 US Election > Exact number of Electoral College votes won.

Important:

These markets are not typical Intrade markets that will settle at $10.00 or $0.00 depending on the outcome of the underlying event. Please read the following market rules very carefully and make sure you understand how these markets works before you enter any orders to buy or sell shares. Trades will not be reversed based on a misunderstanding of the market rules. If you have any questions about this market please contact help@intrade.com.

How This Market Works:

Each market will be settled according to how many Electoral College votes the candidate wins. Each Electoral College vote is valued at $0.01. Therefore, the number of votes won by the candidate will be multiplied by $0.01 to determine the final settlement price of the market. For example: If the candidate wins 332 Electoral College votes the market will be settled at $3.32 (332 votes * $0.01).

When trading shares the number of Electoral College votes is also multiplied by $0.01 to determine the price of the shares. A share price of $2.85 for example, represents 285 Electoral College votes (285 votes * $0.01).

The maximum number of Electoral College votes is 538 so therefore the highest share price is $5.38. The minimum number of Electoral College votes is 0 so therefore the lowest share price is $0.00. Your potential profit and loss will be calculated using these minimum and maximum prices (in the same way it is calculated for the typical Intrade markets that settle at either $0.00 or $10.00).

Buying Shares:

You will buy shares if you expect the number of Electoral College votes won will be HIGHER than the current share price. If the number of votes won is higher than your share price you will make a profit. If the number of votes won is lower than your share price you will suffer a loss. For example:

You buy shares at $2.75 (275 Electoral College votes). The candidate wins 320 Electoral College votes and the market is settled at $3.20. Your profit will be $0.45 per share.
You buy shares at $2.75 (275 Electoral College votes). The candidate wins 150 Electoral College votes and the market is settled at $1.50. Your loss will be $1.25 per share.

(Short) Selling Shares:

You will sell shares if you expect the number of Electoral College votes won will be LOWER than the current share price. If the number of votes won is lower than your share price you will make a profit. If the number of votes won is higher than your share price you will suffer a loss. For example:

You sell shares at $3.10 (310 Electoral College votes). The candidate wins 240 Electoral College votes and the market is settled at $2.40. Your profit will be $0.70 per share.
You sell shares at $3.10 (310 Electoral College votes). The candidate wins 355 Electoral College votes and the market is settled at $3.55. Your loss will be $0.45 per share.

Intrade has a new address

Intrade — Mon, 16 Apr 2012 03:09:52 GMT

Intrade has moved to a new office and so now has a new postal address:

Intrade The Prediction Market
First Floor 12
Office 4
Main St
Lucan, Co. Dublin
IRELAND

Please use this for all checks and other correspondence from now on. This office is just around the corner from our old office so we will be collecting any mail that is delivered to our old address each day.

(Please note that our address does not have a post-code. If you need a post-code for a bank wire deposit form please ask your bank what you can use instead.)

New Transaction History Options on the My Intrade page

Intrade — Wed, 04 Apr 2012 02:57:23 GMT

We have added an extended Transaction History options to the Intrade beta interface (these options will not be made available on the older interface).

In addition seeing a 7 day, 14 day, 30 day and 60 day transaction history, you can now see a 90 day history and a full history for 2011 and for 2012 (useful for those who need to do their taxes).

All transaction histories can also now be downloaded as a CVS file using the link on the Transaction History page.

New Market - Scott Walker recall election in Wisconsin

Intrade — Mon, 02 Apr 2012 06:54:30 GMT

Intrade has listed a market for the outcome of the recall election facing Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker on 5 June 2012. This market can be found under Politics > US Politics.

Market Specific Rules:

This market will settle at $10.00 if Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker wins the recall election scheduled for 5 June 2012.

This market will settle at $0.00 if Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker loses the recall election scheduled for 5 June 2012.

This market will be settled according to the outcome of the recall election, as reported by three independent and reliable media sources.

Important:

Intrade reserves the absolute right to determine how this market will be settled (when and at what price):

If Intrade believes the result may be contested, settlement may be delayed until any challenges to the result have been resolved.
If Intrade believes the result is beyond doubt and will not be contested the market may be settled before the results are certified by the appropriate body.
Intrade may settle this market before 100% of the votes (all precincts) have been reported if the result is beyond doubt (for example, a candidate has a large lead with 99% of the votes reported) AND a reasonable amount of time has passed.

New Market: Second Biggest Box Office Opening in 2012

Intrade — Wed, 28 Mar 2012 09:33:57 GMT

Intrade has listed market for the the second highest box office returns in its first three days of wide release (over 800 theaters) in 2012. The Dark Knight Rises is widely expected to eclipse all other films released this year, so we have listed this market for the second biggest release to make it more interesting.

This market can be found under Entertainment > Box Office Returns.

Market Specific Rules:

A market will settle at $10.00 if the specified movie has the second highest box office return in its first three days of wide release.

A market will settle at $0.00 if the specified movie does not have the second highest box office return in its first three days of wide release.

Settlement will be based on the gross box office returns published by Box Office Mojo. The total gross for the first three days of release will be used to calculate expiry.

For example: the gross box office returns for the first three days (Oct 1-3 2010) for The Social Network were $22,445,653, as detailed by Box Office Mojo HERE.

The first three days of release may not be a weekend. If the movie opens on a Wednesday then the box office returns from Wednesday to Friday will be used for settlement

If the movie is not released, for whatever reason, during 2012 the market will be expired at $0.00.

New Markets: Margins of victory in the upcoming Republican primaries and caucuses

Intrade — Fri, 09 Mar 2012 01:02:13 GMT

Intrade has opened new markets for the margin of victory in the upcoming Republican primaries and caucuses. These markets can be found under Politics > 2012 US Primaries > Margins of Victory in Republican Primaries/Caucuses.

Markets for the next five contests have been listed. Further contests will be added as others settle.

Market Specific Rules:

A market will settle at $10.00 if ANY CANDIDATE wins the named primary or caucus by the specified number of percentage points (or more).

A market will settle at $0.00 if NO CANDIDATE wins the named primary or caucus by the specified number of percentage points (or more)

This market will be settled using the results of the named primary or caucus published by Google Elections. The percentage figures for each candidate will be used for settlement - the percentage figure for the runner-up will be subtracted from the percentage figure of the winner to determine the margin of victory.

Rounding:

The percentage point margins will NOT be rounded up or down when calculating the settlement of this market. For example, if a candidate wins by 14.9 percentage points this figure will not be rounded up to 15 percentage points, and the market for a victory of 15 percentage points or more will settle at $0.00.

Important:

Intrade reserves the absolute right to determine how this market will be settled (when and at what price):

If Intrade believes the result may be contested, settlement may be delayed until any challenges to the result have been resolved.
If Intrade believes the result is beyond doubt and will not be contested the market may be settled before the results are certified by the appropriate body.
Intrade may settle this market before 100% of the votes (all precincts) have been reported if the result is beyond doubt (for example, a candidate has a large lead with 99% of the votes reported) AND a reasonable amount of time has passed.

New Markets: The price of gasoline in the US

Intrade — Thu, 08 Mar 2012 03:50:15 GMT

Intrade has listed a series of markets for the price of gasoline in the United States.

These markets specify a certain per gallon price point for gasoline ($4.50, $5.00 and $5.50), and will be settled at $10.00 as soon as the AAA report the average national price of regular gasoline has hit this price, or higher. If the price of gasoline does not reach the specified price point the market will settle at $0.00 at the end of 2012.

These markets can be found under Current Events > Gasoline. Please be sure to read the market rules carefully and please contact Intrade (help@intrade.com) if you have any questions about these markets, before you make any trades.

New Markets: American Idol

Intrade — Fri, 02 Mar 2012 02:54:36 GMT

Intrade has opened a market for the winner of this season's American Idol. This market can be found under Entertainment > American Idol. Please be sure to read the market rules before making any trades.

Weekly markets for eliminations will also be listed. The market for next weeks elimination is already open and can also be found under Entertainment > American Idol. Once again, please be sure to read the market rules before making any trades.

Will International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) be adopted in the US?

Intrade — Mon, 20 Feb 2012 06:24:49 GMT

Intrade has opened a markets for the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to decide if International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) will be adopted (partially or in full) in the United States.

This market can be found under Financial > Accounting - US.

Market Specific Rules:

The market will settle at $10.00 if the SEC announces before midnight ET 31 Dec 2012 that IFRS will be adopted - either partially or in full.

The market will settle at $0.00 if the SEC does not announce before midnight ET 31 Dec 2012 that IFRS will be adopted - either partially or in full.

This market will be settled using official statements from the SEC about the adoption of IFRS. The adoption of IFRS does not need to actually occur for the market to be settled at $10.00 - the market will be settled once the SEC announces IFRS will be adopted (for example, if the SEC announces in August 2012 that IFRS will be adopted in March 2013 the market will be settled at $10.00).

The IFRS will be considered partially adopted if the SEC announces that any element of the IFRS will be adopted.

If the SEC announces that IFRS will not be adopted, or announces a decision will be delayed until after the end of 2012, Intrade reserves the right to settle the market at $0.00 at that time.

Intrade reserves the absolute right to determine how this market will be settled (when and at what price). This will be done using all reliable mainstream information that is publicly available at that time. Intrade reserves the right to wait for further information before settling this or any other market.

New Market: Winner of 2012 Mexican Presidential Election

Intrade — Wed, 08 Feb 2012 04:44:31 GMT

Intrade has opened a market for who will be elected President of Mexico in the 2012 general election (scheduled for July 1st).

This market can be found under Politics > Mexican Politics.

As always please ensure you read the Market Specific Rules before making any trades, and please contact us at help@intrade.com if you have any questions (also before you make any trades).

Market Rules Clarification: US or Israeli airstrike against Iran

Intrade — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 02:50:05 GMT

Following a customer enquiry, Intrade would like to clarify the market rules published on the website for our market regarding a US or Israeli airstrike against Iran.

For these markets to be settled at $10.00 any airstrike (as defined by the market rules) must be executed against an Iranian target. A market will not be settled at $10.00 if there is an airstrike executed against a non-Iranian target.

An example of an attack against a non-Iranian target would be an airstrike to destroy a US drone or other aircraft that has gone down in Iranian territory before it is recovered by Iranian forces. If Iranian targets are also attacked in the course of this airstrike however, the market will be settled at $10.00.

A clarification has now been added to the market rules published on the website. Please note that this is NOT a change to the rules, it is a clarification to the existing rules.

The markets are currently suspended and trading will be resumed at 16:00 GMT today (Thursday). If you wish to cancel any open orders to buy or sell shares in these markets I suggest you do this before trading is resumed.

New Market: GOP Brokered Convention

Intrade — Tue, 31 Jan 2012 11:30:36 GMT

Intrade has opened a market for the 2012 Republican Presidential nominee to be selected at a brokered party convention.

This market can be found under Politics > 2012 US Election.

Market Specific Rules:

This market will settle at $10.00 if the 2012 Republican Presidential nominee is selected at a brokered party convention.

This market will settle at $0.00 if the 2012 Republican Presidential nominee is not selected at a brokered party convention.

If the Presidential nominee is not decided after the first round of delegate voting at the party convention the convention will be considered "brokered" (i.e. it takes multiple rounds of voting by party delegates to decide the nominee).

Important change to Intrade's daily session close

Intrade — Thu, 19 Jan 2012 11:48:49 GMT

Our daily session close will be moved forward one hour, from 7:00am GMT to 8:00am GMT, on a permanent basis from Monday 23 January. The session close will still last between 30 and 40 minutes.

New Markets: Electoral College Votes

Intrade — Thu, 12 Jan 2012 07:52:45 GMT

ntrade has now opened markets for how many Electoral College votes the Republican and Democratic nominees will win in November.

These markets can be found under Politics > 2012 US Elections.

As always please read the market rules carefully and please contact us at help@intrade.com if you have any questions before you make a trade.

New Markets: Earthquake Magnitudes

Intrade — Thu, 12 Jan 2012 11:40:44 GMT

Intrade has opened markets for whether or not earthquakes of certain magnitudes will occur anywhere in the world during 2012.

These markets can be found under Current Events > Earthquakes.

Market Rules:

A market will settle at $10.00 if there is an earthquake equal to or greater than the specified magnitude in the anywhere in the world before midnight ET 31 Dec 2012.

The market will settle at $0.00 if there is not an earthquake equal to or greater than the specified magnitude in the anywhere in the world before midnight ET 31 Dec 2012.

Settlement will be based on magnitude information provided by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program.

The market will be paused as soon as possible after any major earthquakes. The market will remain paused until the USGS has fully reviewed and confirmed the magnitude. This may take up to five days after the earthquake.

President/Congress Combinations

Intrade — Mon, 05 Dec 2011 02:38:29 GMT

Intrade has listed new markets for the combination of President/Congress after the 2012 elections (for example, a Republican President, a Democratic Senate and a Republican House of Representatives).

These markets can be found under Politics > 2012 US Elections > President-Congress Combination after 2012 Elections.

IMPORTANT: Please note that in the market rules (see below) there is a clause that departs from what we've had in the past. For this market: Any Senate or House seat held by an Independent who caucuses or votes with the Democrats will be considered a Democratic seat. The same rule applies to any Independent who caucuses or votes with the Republicans.

Market Specific Rules:

This market will settle at $10.00 if the specified combination of Republican/Democratic President and Republican/Democratic control of Senate and House of Representatives exists after the 2012 elections.

This market will settle at $0.00 if the specified combination of Republican/Democratic President and Republican/Democratic control of Senate and House of Representatives DOES NOT exist after the 2012 elections.

Settlement will be based on the official results of the 2012 presidential and congressional elections, as reported by three independent and reliable media sources.

A party will be considered in control of the Senate if they hold 51 (or more) Senate seats, or hold 50 Senate seats and have the Senate vote of the Vice President of the United States in his or her role as President of the Senate. A party will be considered in control of the House of Representatives if they hold 218 (or more) seats.

Any Senate or House seat held by an Independent who caucuses or votes with the Democrats will be considered a Democratic seat. The same rule applies to any Independent who caucuses or votes with the Republicans.

Because the possibility exists that the President may not be Democratic or Republican and that neither party will control the Senate or House of Representatives, these markets ARE NOT LINKED FOR MARGINING PURPOSES - you will be margined individually on each position and not across all positions held. The chances of anything like this are very small, but we still need to account for it.

New debit/credit card processing system

Intrade — Mon, 28 Nov 2011 05:09:58 GMT

Intrade has introduced a new debit and credit card processing system. You are no longer required to add your card details to your Intrade account, you now enter your card number and expiry date directly into the online transaction form each time you make a deposit.

All credit card debit transactions are securely processed by Wirecard Bank. Intrade does not record, store or have access to your card information when you make a deposit.

All deposits are now processed using 3D verification (Verified by Visa and MasterCard SecureCode) to protect your card against unauthorised use. If your card is not activated for 3D verification then please contact your bank to complete the activation process (which should only a take a few minutes). If you attempt to make a deposit without activating your card for 3D verification the transaction will be rejected.

Will Palin, Trump, Bloomberg, Paul or Bachmann run as an Independent or 3rd party candidate?

Intrade — Wed, 09 Nov 2011 10:33:08 GMT

Intrade has opened a market for Sarah Palin, Donald Trump, Ron Paul, Michael Bloomberg or Michele Bachmann to run for President in 2012 as Independent or 3rd party candidate.

This market can be found under Politics > 2012 US Elections.

Market Specific Rules:

This market will settle at $10.00 if ANY of the individuals listed below run for President of the United States in 2012 as an Independent or Third Party candidate.

This market will settle at $10.00 if NONE of the individuals listed below run for President of the United States in 2012 as an Independent or Third Party candidate.

This market covers the following individuals:

Sarah Palin
Donald Trump
Ron Paul
Michael Bloomberg
Michele Bachmann

his market will be settled using public statements from the listed individuals. If they declare they are running for President in 2012 as an Independent or 3rd Party candidate the market will be settled at $10.00.

If none of the listed individuals has announced their intention to run as an Independent or Third Party candidate by 31 July 2012 the market will be settled at $0.00.

If there is any uncertainty over an individuals intentions, Intrade reserves the absolute right to determine how this market will be settled (when and at what price). This will be done using all reliable mainstream information that is publicly available at that time. Intrade reserves the right to wait for further information before settling this or any other market.

New Prediction Market: Will David Cameron depart as Prime Minister?

Intrade — Tue, 19 Jul 2011 09:42:23 GMT

Intrade has opened a market for David Cameron to depart as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. This market can be found under Politics > UK Politics.

Market Specific Rules:

This market will settle $10.00 if David Cameron is no longer Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any reason (except death) before the specified time and date.

The market will settle $0.00 if David Cameron remains Prime Minister of the United Kingdom at the specified time and date.

Settlement will be based on the status of David Cameron as Prime Minister. If there is any ambiguity over this status Intrade reserves the absolute right to determine how this market will be settled (when and at what price). This will be done using all reliable mainstream information that is publicly available at that time. Intrade reserves the right to wait for further information before settling this or any other market.

This market does not cover the death of David Cameron. In the event of death the market will be declared void and all trades will be reversed.

New Prediction Market: Ayman al-Zawahiri

Intrade — Fri, 17 Jun 2011 01:15:34 GMT

Intrade has opend a market for Ayman al-Zawahiri, the new leader of al-Qaeda, to be captured or killed. This market can be found under Foreign Affairs/International Security > Terrorism.

Market Specific Rules:

The market will settle $10.00 if Ayman al-Zawahiri is captured or killed before the specified time and date.

The market will settle $0.00 if Ayman al-Zawahiri is not captured or killed before the specified time and date.

Settlement will be based on official public announcements from the US Government confirming the capture or death of Ayman al-Zawahiri, as reported in three independent and reliable media sources.

This market will be settled using the information publicly available at the time. If it is revealed at a later date that Ayman al-Zawahiri was captured or killed prior to market settlement but this information was not made public at the time, the original settlement will stand.

This market will also settle at $10.00 if it is confirmed that Ayman al-Zawahiri has died of natural causes.

If there is any ambiguity over the status of Ayman al-Zawahiri, Intrade reserves the absolute right to determine how this market will be settled (when and at what price). Intrade reserves the right to wait for further information before settling this or any other market.

New Prediction Market: Scottish Independence

Intrade — Wed, 18 May 2011 02:43:49 GMT

Intrade has opened a market for the outcome of a referendum on Scottish independence. This market can be found under Politics > UK Politics.

Market Rules:

This contract will settle (expire) at 100 ($10.00) if Scotland votes YES to independence in a referendum before the time and date specified in the contract.

The contract will settle (expire) at 0 ($0.00) if Scotland votes NO to independence in a referendum before the time and date specified in the contract.

Expiry will be based on the official outcome of any referendum held on Scottish independence, as reported by three independent and reliable media sources.

This market applies only to the outcome of a referendum. If no referendum is held before the time and date specified in the contract the contract will be settled at 0 ($0.00).

Any changes to the result after the contract has expired will not be taken into account - Contract Rule 1.4

Due to the nature of this prediction market contract you are obligated to read Contract Rule 1.7 (Unforeseen Circumstances) and Contract Rule 1.8 (Time Protection). Intrade may invoke these rules in its absolute discretion if deemed appropriate.

Please contact the exchange by emailing help@intrade.com if you have any questions regarding this contract or interpretation of these contract specific rules, related exchange news articles or exchange rules before you place an order to trade.

New Prediction Market: Bashar al-Assad (President of Syria)

Intrade — Wed, 23 Mar 2011 09:29:05 GMT

A market for Bashar al-Assad to be gone as the President of Syria has been added to our Middle East markets.

These markets can be found under Foreign Affair/International Security > Middle East Protests.

As always please be sure to red the contract rules before making any orders to trade, and please contact us at help@intrade.com if you have any questions.

Intrade Adds More Prediction Market Transparency

Intrade — Tue, 22 Mar 2011 12:50:12 GMT

Intrade has just launched a new feature that displays the last 100 real money predictions made using the web interface.

The information disclosed includes the market predicted on, the price and whether the person bought (buy) or sold(sell), and the physical location of the person entering the order.

We do not display orders that we receive over our API as including such orders would result in circa 100,000 predominantly financial orders streaming in and obfuscating other important and representative orders.

The new page is available at the bottom right of our home page or by clicking on this link…

http://www.intrade.com/v4/misc/recentpredictions/

Below you will find a selection of most recent orders:

API Automated Predictions (thousands per hour) are excluded.

Muammar al-Gaddafi to no longer be leader of Libya before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011 predicted to be above $0.10 / share

Sokolov, Czech Republic

Apple iPad unit sales to be 25 million (or more) in fiscal year 2011 predicted to be above $5.01 / share

Volda, Norway

Muammar al-Gaddafi to no longer be leader of Libya before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011 predicted to be below $7.50 / share

Budapest, Hungary

Any country currently using the Euro to announce their intention to drop it midnight ET 31 Dec 2011 predicted to be below $1.00 / share

Izmir, Turkey

Any country currently using the Euro to announce their intention to drop it midnight ET 31 Dec 2011 predicted to be below $1.07 / share

Izmir, Turkey

A fourth explosion to occur at a Japanese Nuclear power plant before midnight ET 31 Mar 2011 predicted to be below $2.77 / share

Ljubljana, Slovenia

Limitless to gross OVER $6.0M in opening weekend predicted to be above $1.00 / share

Oxford, United States

Sucker Punch to gross OVER $20.0M in opening weekend predicted to be above $9.00 / share

Oxford, United States

Magnitude 8.0 (or higher) earthquake to occur anywhere before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011 predicted to be above $7.54 / share

Oxford, United States

The Google Lunar X Prize to be won on/before 31 Dec 2012 predicted to be above $4.60 / share

Oxford, United States

Next Canadian general election to be held on/before 30 Jun 2011 predicted to be above $4.00 / share

Morell, Canada

Tim Pawlenty to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012 predicted to be above $1.87 / share

Atlanta, United States

DOW to close UP by 25 points or more on prev close predicted to be above $4.15 / share

Morell, Canada

DOW to close HIGHER than prev close predicted to be above $4.50 / share

Morell, Canada

A fourth explosion to occur at a Japanese Nuclear power plant before midnight ET 31 Mar 2011 predicted to be above $2.60 / share

Chris Christie to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012 predicted to be above $0.34 / share

Rudy Guiliani to announce he will run for President before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011 predicted to be above $2.15 / share

New York, United States

Haley Barbour to announce he will run for President before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011 predicted to be above $7.50 / share

New York, United States

DOW to close DOWN by 25 points or more on prev close predicted to be above $0.10 / share

Morell, Canada

DOW to close UP by 50 points or more on prev close predicted to be above $0.10 / share

Morell, Canada

DOW to close UP by 25 points or more on prev close predicted to be above $0.10 / share

Morell, Canada

DOW to close HIGHER than prev close predicted to be above $0.10 / share

Morell, Canada

Muammar al-Gaddafi to no longer be leader of Libya before midnight ET 30 Apr 2011 predicted to be above $4.10 / share

Morell, Canada

DOW to close UP by 200 points or more on prev close predicted to be below $9.00 / share

Powder Springs, United States

DOW to close HIGHER than prev close predicted to be above $0.10 / share

Morell, Canada

Intrade markets perform well at this years Academy Awards

Intrade — Wed, 02 Mar 2011 04:55:01 GMT

Dr. Mark J. Perry, Professor of Economics and Finance in the School of Management at the Flint campus of the University of Michigan has examined the performance of Intrade's prediction markets for this year's Academy Awards.

His full blog post can be read HERE.

See Intrade on CNBC Tuesday 25th January circa 2 pm ET.

Intrade — Tue, 25 Jan 2011 03:17:05 GMT

We are very pleased to be invited once again by CNBC to appear on their network. The expected feature ahead of President Obamas State of the Union speech between John Delaney, CEO of Intrade and Erin Burnett of CNBC is scheduled for shortly after 2 pm ET on 25th January 2011. We hope you have opportunity to see it.

New Prediction Market: Number of House seats held by GOP after 2012 elections

Intrade — Tue, 25 Jan 2011 02:58:21 GMT

Intrade has opened a market for the number of House seats held by the Republicans following the 2012 elections.

This market can be found under Politics > 2012 US Elections.

Contract Rules:

A contract will settle (expire) at 100 ($10.00) if the number of House seats held by the Republicans is equal to, or greater than, the number specified in the contract.

This contract will settle (expire) at 0 (10.00) if the number of House seats held by the Republicans is less than the number specified in the contract.

Expiry will be based on the official results of the 2012 elections, as reported by three independent and reliable media sources.

If necessary this contract may remain open until any legal challenges to the outcome of an election are settled. A legal challenge will be considered settled once a member of Congress has been sworn in for the disputed seat.

For the purposes of this contract any seats held by an Independent who caucuses with the Republicans will NOT be considered a Republican seat. The seat must be held by a Republican.

Any changes to the result after the contract has expired will not be taken into account - Contract Rule 1.4

New Prediction Market: Number of Senate seats held by GOP after 2012 elections

Intrade — Tue, 25 Jan 2011 01:57:00 GMT

Intrade has opened a market for the number of Senate seats held by the Republicans following the 2012 elections.

This market can be found under Politics > 2012 US Elections.

Contract Rules:

A contract will settle (expire) at 100 ($10.00) if the number of seats held by the Republicans is equal to, or greater than, the number specified in the contract.

This contract will settle (expire) at 0 (10.00) if the number of seats held by the Republicans is less than the number specified in the contract.

Expiry will be based on the official results of the 2012 elections, as reported by three independent and reliable media sources.

If necessary this contract may remain open until any legal challenges to the outcome of an election are settled. A legal challenge will be considered settled once a Senator has been sworn in for the disputed seat.

For the purposes of this contract any seats held by an Independent who caucuses with the Republicans will NOT be considered a Republican seat. The seat must be held by a Republican.

Any changes to the result after the contract has expired will not be taken into account - Contract Rule 1.4

New Prediction Market: 2012 US Gubernatorial Races

Intrade — Tue, 25 Jan 2011 01:52:59 GMT

Intrade has opened markets for all of next years Gubernatorial races. These markets can be found under Politics > 2012 US Gov. Races.

Please be sure to read the contract rules carefully before making an order to trade, and please contact us at help@intrade.com if you have any questions.

New Prediction Market: 2012 US Senate Races

Intrade — Tue, 25 Jan 2011 01:50:05 GMT

Intrade has opened markets for all of next years US Senate races. These markets can be found under Politics > 2012 US Senate Races.

Please be sure to read the contract rules carefully before making an order to trade, and please contact us at help@intrade.com if you have any questions.

New Prediction Market: 2012 US Pres. Election - State by State

Intrade — Mon, 24 Jan 2011 08:28:32 GMT

Intrade has listed markets for which party's candidate will win each state in the 2012 US Presidential election. These markets can be found under Politics > 2012 US States.

Contract Rules:

A contract will settle (expire) at 100 ($10.00) if the nominee from the party specified in the contract wins the Electoral College votes for the state specified in the contract in the 2012 US Presidential election.

The contract will settle (expire) at 0 ($0.00) if the nominee from the party specified in the contract does not win the Electoral College votes for the state specified in the contract in the 2012 US Presidential election.

This market will be expired once the Electoral College vote allocations are determined by voters on election day. Any changes to these totals when Electors officially cast their votes in December or when Congress meets to approve the votes in January will not affect this expiry. If there is some delay in determining the votes of a particular state (for example, a recount) then the markets will remain open until the issue is settled.

If a state allocates its Electoral College votes proportionally then contracts for this state will be expired according to who wins the majority of the state's Electoral College votes.

If the election is postponed until another date the contract expiration date will be moved according. If the outcome is delayed the contracts will remain open until the result is known.

Any changes to the result after the contract has expired will not be taken into account - Contract Rule 1.4

Effective 1st January Intrade is radically changing how it encourages trading

Intrade — Thu, 16 Dec 2010 02:04:52 GMT

Intrade expects trading liquidity to improve dramatically with our radical new fee structure.

Trading and expiry fees have been removed entirely.

They are being replaced instead with a modest monthly “trading seat” fee of only US$4.99.

This fee will be charged on the first day of every month, beginning 1st January.

We have improved our software to handle higher volumes as we continuously emphasize the fair pricing of contracts between members on our platform.

Visual data display lets members detect contracts that interest them. With this new incentive to trade we expect to see more trading on these contracts with closer spreads.

Furthermore, we will make our application programmable interface (API)* freely available to all members.

We hope members will applaud these improvements by sharply increasing their use of the services we offer.

As always, your feedback is the best guide we have on the improvements we can implement.

Good fortunes trading from all at Intrade.

*The Intrade API is an interface to encourage interaction with our platform in a manner and method entirely under your control. The Intrade API allows anyone to develop widgets, apps, prediction methods, robots, and crawlers that allow you to read from, and write to, (i.e. make predictions) Intrade in a fully customizable manner.

New Prediction Market: The Discovery of Extraterrestrial Life

Intrade — Fri, 03 Dec 2010 11:27:58 GMT

Intrade has opened a market for NASA to discover extraterrestrial life.

This market can be found under Scientific > Space and Beyond.

Contract Rules:

A contract will settle (expire) at 100 ($10.00) if NASA announces the discovery of extraterrestrial life before midnight ET on the date specified in the contract.

The contract will settle (expire) at 0 ($0.00) if NASA does not announce the discovery of extraterrestrial life before midnight ET on the date specified in the contract.

Expiry will be based on official statements from NASA confirming the discovery of extraterrestrial life, as reported by three independent and reliable media sources.

Any changes to the result after the contract has expired will not be taken into account - Contract Rule 1.4

New Prediction Market: When will the next US Supreme Court Justice retire or resign from the Court?

Intrade — Wed, 01 Dec 2010 04:13:11 GMT

Intrade has listed a market for the next resignation or retirement of a US Supreme Court Judge.

This market can be found under Legal > Supreme Court.

Contract Rules:

A contract will settle (expire) at 100 ($10.00) if a current US Supreme Court Justice announces their retirement or resignation from the Court before midnight ET on the date specified in the contract.

The contract will settle (expire) at 0 ($0.00) if a current US Supreme Court Justice does not announce their retirement or resignation from the Court before midnight ET on the date specified in the contract.

Expiry will be based on official public announcements from members of the US Supreme Court, as reported by three independent and reliable media sources.

This contract will be expired when a retirement or resignation is officially announced. The retirement or resignation does not have to take effect for the contracts to be expired, it only has to be announced.

Any changes to the result after the contract has expired will not be taken into account - Contract Rule 1.4

New Prediction Market: 2012 Republican VP Nominee

Intrade — Mon, 15 Nov 2010 06:48:56 GMT

Intrade has opened a market for the 2012 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee.

This market can be found under Politics > 2012 US Elections > 2012 Republican VP Nominee.

Contract Rules:

A contract will settle (expire) at 100 ($10.00) if the individual named in the contract is announced as the Republican Vice-Presidential nominee to contest the 2012 Presidential election.

The contract will settle (expire) at 0 ($0.00) if the individual named in the contract is NOT announced as the Republican Vice-Presidential nominee to contest the 2012 Presidential election.

Final expiry of the nominee will be made once the nomination is made official at the party convention. This expiry will be final and any changes to the nominee after expiry, for whatever reason, will not be considered.

Expiry will be final and any changes to the nominee after expiry, for whatever reason, will not be considered

This market is open for sensible suggestions. If you would like a name to be added to please forward to your suggestion to markets@intrade.com.

In the event of the death of one of the candidates the following steps may be taken:

1. All contracts in the group will be paused and expired at the last closing price set for each contract
2. A new market will be listed for the remaining candidates

Any changes to the result after the contract has expired will not be taken into account - Contract Rule 1.4

New Prediction Market: US President 2012

Intrade — Thu, 11 Nov 2010 01:39:55 GMT

Intrade has opened a market for who will be elected President of the United States in 2012. This market can be found under Politics > 2012 US Elections.

Contract Rules:

A contract will settle (expire) at 100 ($10.00) if the individual named in the contract is elected President of the United States in 2012.

The contract will settle (expire) at 0 ($0.00) if the individual named in the contract is NOT elected President of the United States in 2012.

Expiry will be based on the official outcome of the 2012 US Presidential election, as reported in three independent and reliable media sources.

This market is open for sensible suggestions. If you would like a name added to the market then please send us your suggestion to help@intrade.com.

The Exchange may leave contracts in this group open once a party nomination is official to guard against a change in nominee after the party conventions.

If the election is postponed until another date, the contract expiration date will be moved according.

If the final count is delayed the contracts will remain open until the result from the final count is officially declared.

In the event of the death of one of the candidates the following steps will be taken:

1. All contracts in the group will be paused and expired at the last closing price set for each contract
2. A new market will be listed for the remaining candidates

Any changes to the result after the contract has expired will not be taken into account - Contract Rule 1.4

New Prediction Market: Palestinian State

Intrade — Wed, 01 Sep 2010 11:58:36 GMT

Intrade has listed a market for an internationally recognised Palestinian state to be established. This market can be found under Current Events > Middle East.

New Prediction Market: 2012 Democratic VP Nominee

Intrade — Tue, 17 Aug 2010 11:25:12 GMT

Intrade has opened a market for the Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee to contest the 2012 election. This market can be found under Politics > 1012 US Elections. At present we have Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton listed as possibilities, but the market is open for sensible suggestions. We will not be listing a market for the Republican Vice-Presidential nominee just yet as there is not a lot of clarity regarding possible contenders for the GOP nominations.

New Prediction Market: An outright majority in the next UK election

Intrade — Fri, 14 May 2010 01:35:13 GMT

Intrade has opened a market for an outright majority to be secured in the next UK general election. This market can be found under Politics > UK Politics.

New Prediction Market: Date of the next UK general election

Intrade — Fri, 14 May 2010 11:06:00 GMT

Intrade has opened a market for when the next UK general election will be held. This market can be found under Politics > UK Politics.

New Prediction Market: Winner of the next UK general election

Intrade — Fri, 14 May 2010 09:32:20 GMT

Intrade has opened a market for the winner of the next UK general election. This market can be found under Politics > UK Politics.

New Prediction Market: Will the UK coalition survive?

Intrade — Thu, 13 May 2010 05:23:28 GMT

With last week's UK general election resulting in a hung parliament, David Cameron and the Conservatives joined forces with Nick Clegg and the Liberal Democrats to form Britain's first coalition government in sixty-five years. But can a marriage between the centre-right Conservatives and the centre-left Liberal Democrats survive? There are certainly stark policy differences between the two parties on a number of issues: European integration, immigration and constitutional reform to name but three. Can these difference be reconciled to form a stable, lasting government? Intrade has opened a new market on how long the coalition will survive. This market can be found under Politics > UK Politics.

New Prediction Market: Will Greece, Portugal, Spain, Ireland or Italy be declared in default?

Intrade — Thu, 13 May 2010 03:52:41 GMT

Intrade has opened a market on the possibility Greece, Portugal, Spain, Ireland or Italy will be declared in default (as per Standard and Poor's). This market can be found under Financial > Eurozone Crisis.

New Prediction Market: Spain, Portugal, Italy or Ireland to receive EU/IMF bailout

Intrade — Mon, 10 May 2010 04:17:06 GMT

Intrade has listed a market for Spain, Portugal, Italy or Ireland to receive a bailout from the European Union and/or the International Monetary Fund. This market can be found under Financial > Eurozone Crisis.

New Prediction Market: Will Portugal, Spain, Ireland or Italy be downgraded to junk?

Intrade — Fri, 07 May 2010 02:05:19 GMT

Intrade has opened a market on the possibility Portugal, Spain, Ireland or Italy will have their sovereign credit rating downgraded to junk (as per Standard and Poor's). This market can be found under Financial > Eurozone Crisis.

See Intrade on the Riz Khan Show on Al Jazeera

Intrade — Mon, 12 Apr 2010 10:15:51 GMT

See Intrade on the Riz Khan Show on Al Jazeera.

Intrade`s Prediction Market Performance for the Academy Awards

Intrade — Mon, 08 Mar 2010 12:42:37 GMT

Intrade`s Prediction Market Performance for the Academy Awards Please see a blog post by Dr. Mark J. Perry, Professor of Economics and Finance in the School of Management at the Flint campus of the University of Michigan on the performance of Intrade?s markets for the Oscar`s. http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2010/03/intrade-odds-academy-awards-leaders.html Dr. Perry did not mention our market for the Winner of Best Foreign Language Film. Our market had ?The Secret in Their Eyes (El Secreto de Sus Ojos) as the second most likely to win the Oscar.

New Prediction Market: Will Eric Holder depart as Attorney General?

Intrade — Wed, 06 Jan 2010 04:36:15 GMT

Intrade has listed a market for the departure of Eric Holder from his current position of US Attorney General before the end of President Obama's first term in office. This market can be found under Politics --Obama Administration. Please read the contract rules before making and trades and please contact us at help@intrade.com if you have any questions.

New Prediction Market: Will Hillary Clinton depart as Secretary of State?

Intrade — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 02:52:36 GMT

Intrade has listed a market on the possible departure of Hillary Clinton from her current position as US Secretary of State before the end of President Obama's first term in office. This market can be found under Politics -- Obama Administration.

Intrade in the Press

Intrade — Thu, 21 May 2009 09:22:58 GMT

Intrade received a number of mentions in the global press over the last week. Here are some of the stories...

Will President Obama visit Cuba, Iran, Syria or North Korea?

Intrade — Wed, 29 Apr 2009 04:30:17 GMT

Intrade has listed a market on the possibility of President Obama visiting Cuba, Iran, Syria or North Korea before the ned of his first term in office.

A Cap and Trade system for the US?

Intrade — Wed, 29 Apr 2009 04:34:07 GMT

Intrade has now listed a market for a cap and trade system for carbon emmission trading to be estbalished in the United States.

Visual Presentation of Election 2008 Historical Data

Intrade — Fri, 14 Nov 2008 06:16:22 GMT

Intrade's state markets for the US 2008 election predicted the exact final electoral college vote counts for each candidate. Now, you can track the history of Intrade's US election 2008 prediction markets through its interactive visual historical data interface. The new historical data application allows users to track the race day-by-day over the year leading up to November 4th. The application extends Intrade's celebrated Realtime Electoral College Predictor to include graphical electoral college vote count projections using both the Leaning and Average methodologies. Intrade's historical predictive market data page provides full support and transparency to those wishing to assess prediction market performance.

CNBC Features Intrade - Cashing in on the election

Intrade — Fri, 29 Aug 2008 02:04:28 GMT

CNBC Covers Intrade.com on Squawk Box August 25th 2008

ABC 20/20 featuring Intrade. May 9th, 10PM

Intrade — Fri, 09 May 2008 05:55:51 GMT

ABC 20/20 are doing a story featuring Intrade on May 9th at 10PM EST.